Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Unlikely Push for Glory
Just 60 days prior that the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained if his displays were a sign or a cause for the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. After Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six games, now sit only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, while the wins have stacked up.
As per the data, twice all season have Villa had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they appear curiously susceptible – but currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their talisman to save the day with some clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.